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This paper is concerned with the intermediate-term prediction of the forthcoming M7.4–8.2 earthquake on the plate boundary, off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, which has the highest occurrence probability among the long-term forecasted events announced to the public. Seismicity and aftershocks in the regions of stress-shadow preceding each of the previous ruptures in 1936 and 1978 shows significantly lower activity than the predicted rate by the ETAS model (the relative quiescence) during some years preceding the events, whereas the seismicity is normal or even activated in the regions of neutral or increasing Coulomb failure stress (CFS), which leads to the scenario based on the likely precursory slip within or near the source. Assuming such a scenario, a number of sequences of earthquakes or aftershocks during 1979–2004 from various regions in northern Japan are selected to analyze them by fitting the ETAS model. Then the results are examined in relation to the CFS increments in the considered regions using the source models of the 1793, 1936 and 1978 interplate ruptures, and additionally the source model of recently occurred 2003 Miyagi-Ken-Oki intra-slab earthquake of M7.1. It is likely that the results of the normal activity and relative quiescence in the respective activities are due to the preslip of the intra-slab earthquake rather than the preslip of the expected rupture on the plate boundary. 相似文献
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根据众所周知的库伦破裂准则,应力或孔隙压力的变化都会导致地震破裂。余震活动一般认为是地震应力变化引起的,它服从大森定律。而地震群则认为是通过地下流体侵入岩层所致。应力触发可以通过在地壳单独构建三维弹力应变模型分析,而地震引起的地下流体流动情况必须通过空隙压力变化和地震之间相互作用应力场的改变这样复杂的地震活动图像研究。我们看到ETAS模型是从复杂地震活动图像获得最初流体信号的一种适当工具。我们主要分析2000年发生在欧洲中部的波西米亚西北部Vogtland地区的大地震群。通过拟合随机的传染型余震序列模型(ETAS)我们发现应力触发在创建观测地震活动图像和解释观测事件破碎时间分布时起支配性作用。外力在直接触发引起地震活动中起到的作用是很有限的,这种外力被认为是由于流体入侵导致孔隙压力变化而产生的。然而时间上的反褶积表明显著的流体信号源于地震群。这些结果已被我们的仿真模型模拟研究证实,在这个研究中,流体侵入和应力在三维弹性半空间中沿断层面转移时触发地震。基于ETAS模型的反褶积过程能够揭示地下孔隙压力变化。 相似文献
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Kazuhiko Koike Hirotaka Otobe Minoru Takagi Tadahisa Yoshida Takehiko Ogata Takashi Ishimaru 《Journal of Oceanography》2001,57(2):165-175
Occurrence of Dinophysis fortii, a causative organism of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, in the Okkirai Bay, Sanriku was surveyed in 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. In each year, its major occurrence was detected from the late May or early June and continued until the late June or early July. Seawater temperature, salinity and nutrients measurements suggested that inflows of offshore water into the bay played key role on the first major occurrence of D. fortii. With an analysis of continuous temperature data in the Otsuchi Bay which locates north of the Okkirai Bay, this influent was considered to be intermittent inflow of the offshore water by internal tidal waves which propagated from north to south. First occurrence peak of D. fortii was synchronous with phycobilin containing microalgae, synechococcoid cyanobacteria and cryptomonad, in all years. In vivo fluorescence measurement of D. fortii cells in 1995 and 96 showed that the cells in these microalgal-rich water contained more phycobilin pigment than those in the microalgal-poor water. The result may support a hypothesis that D. fortii acquires phycobilin by an uptake of these microalgae. After the first major occurrence in the bay, D. fortii sometimes occurred in rather inshore waters where showed elevated ammonium level possibly due to increased heterotrophic activity. Together with another finding that D. fortii is mixotrophic, it could be assumed that the environment being suited to heterotrophic nutrition also stimulates D. fortii growth in the bay. 相似文献
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Aleksandra Smyrak-Sikora Per Terje Osmundsen Alvar Braathen Kei Ogata Ingrid Anell Mark J. Mulrooney Valentin Zuchuat 《Basin Research》2020,32(5):949-978
World-class examples of fault-controlled growth basins with associated syn-kinematic sedimentary fill are developed in Upper Triassic prodelta to delta-front deposits exposed at Kvalpynten, SW Edgeøya in East Svalbard. They are interpreted to have interacted with north-westerly progradation of a regional delta system. The syn-kinematic successions consist of 4 to 5 coarsening-upward units spanning from offshore mudstones to subtidal heterolithic bars and compound tidal dunes, which were blanketed by regional, post-kinematic sandstone sheets deposited as laterally continuous, subaqueous tidal dune fields. The rate of growth faulting is reflected in the distribution of accommodation, which governs sedimentary architecture and stacking patterns within the coarsening-upward units. Fully compartmentalized basins (12, 200–800 m wide and c. 150 m high grabens and half grabens) are characterized by syn-kinematic sedimentary infill. These grabens and half-grabens are separated by 60–150 m high horsts composed of pro-delta to distal delta-front mudstones. Grabens host tabular tidal dunes (sandwaves), whereas half-grabens bound by listric faults (mainly south-dipping) consist of wedge-shaped, rotated strata with erosive boundaries proximal to the uplifted fault block crests. Heterolithic tidal bars (sand ridges) occur in narrow half-grabens, showing migration oblique to the faults, up the dipslope. Structureless sandstone wedges and localized subaqueous slumps that formed in response to collapse of the block crests were only documented in half-grabens. Late-kinematic deposition during the final stages of faulting occurred in partly compartmentalized basins, filled with variably thick sets of continuous sandstone belts (compound tidal dunes). 相似文献
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A large earthquake (Mw 8.1) that occurred off the North Coast of the Antarctic continent near the Balleny Islands on 25 March 1998 was the largest intra-plate earthquake ever recorded in the Antarctic Plate. The earthquake hypocenter catalog for this area shows a marked change in seismicity following the main shock in a large area around the Balleny aftershock region. However, the earthquake catalog includes many aftershocks and is affected by a variable detection rate. To overcome these limitations, we applied statistical models and methods, including Gutenberg–Richter’s magnitude frequency distribution, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model, and the space–time ETAS model, thereby enabling calculation of the change in detection rate. The results show a change in the spatial pattern of background seismicity over a large region after the 1998 event. 相似文献
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Jamsran Erdenebayar Takeyuki Ogata Akira Imai Jargalan Sereenen 《Resource Geology》2014,64(4):283-300
Unidirectional solidification texture (UST) in an aplite body is recognized in the Neoproterozoic highly differentiated granitic rocks at Kharaatyagaan, central Mongolia. On the basis of crystal morphology, two main types of UST were identified in the aplite body: (i) thin crenulate UST layers; and (ii) thick intergrowth UST layers. Bulk geochemistry indicates that the Kharaatyagaan UST‐bearing aplite and aplite dike are alkaline, and are enriched in light rare‐earth elements. Scanning electron microscopy and cathadoluminescence imaging of UST quartz from Kharaatyagaan show four types of quartz: euhedral quartz phenocrysts with well‐developed concentric growth zoning (Qa1) in the aplite; euhedral quartz with weak growth zoning in the aplite (Qa2); UST quartz exhibiting distinct growth zones (Qu1); and UST quartz showing mosaic texture (Qu2). Crystallization temperatures determined by the Ti‐in‐quartz geothermometer of Qa1 and Qu1 quartz range between around 500°C and 780°C and Qa2 and Qu2 range between about 490° and 630°C. The cathodoluminescence textures of quartz are predominantly caused by variations in the trace elements contents of quartz. The Qa1 and Qu1 quartz crystals are characterized by high Ti and Al concentrations in the quartz lattice, and are observed in the bottom of the Kharaatyagaan hill, which formed in the early, less evolved magmatic stage. The Qa2 and Qu2 UST quartz characterized by low Ti and variable Al concentrations are found at the top. The UST layers crystallized along the upper part of the magma chamber in the presence of fluid phases exsolved from felsic magma. 相似文献
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Kofi Adomako‐Ansah Toshio Mizuta Napoleon Q. Hammond Daizo Ishiyama Takeyuki Ogata Hitoshi Chiba 《Resource Geology》2013,63(2):119-140
The Blue Dot gold deposit, located in the Archean Amalia greenstone belt of South Africa, is hosted in an oxide (± carbonate) facies banded iron formation (BIF). It consists of three stratabound orebodies; Goudplaats, Abelskop, and Bothmasrust. The orebodies are flanked by quartz‐chlorite‐ferroan dolomite‐albite schist in the hanging wall and mafic (volcanic) schists in the footwall. Alteration minerals associated with the main hydrothermal stage in the BIF are dominated by quartz, ankerite‐dolomite series, siderite, chlorite, muscovite, sericite, hematite, pyrite, and minor amounts of chalcopyrite and arsenopyrite. This study investigates the characteristics of gold mineralization in the Amalia BIF based on ore textures, mineral‐chemical data and sulfur isotope analysis. Gold mineralization of the Blue Dot deposit is associated with quartz‐carbonate veins that crosscut the BIF layering. In contrast to previous works, petrographic evidence suggests that the gold mineralization is not solely attributed to replacement reactions between ore fluid and the magnetite or hematite in the host BIF because coarse hydrothermal pyrite grains do not show mutual replacement textures of the oxide minerals. Rather, the parallel‐bedded and generally chert‐hosted pyrites are in sharp contact with re‐crystallized euhedral to subhedral magnetite ± hematite grains, and the nature of their coexistence suggests that pyrite (and gold) precipitation was contemporaneous with magnetite–hematite re‐crystallization. The Fe/(Fe+Mg) ratio of the dolomite–ankerite series and chlorite decreased from veins through mineralized BIF and non‐mineralized BIF, in contrast to most Archean BIF‐hosted gold deposits. This is interpreted to be due to the effect of a high sulfur activity and increase in fO2 in a H2S‐dominant fluid during progressive fluid‐rock interaction. High sulfur activity of the hydrothermal fluid fixed pyrite in the BIF by consuming Fe2+ released into the chert layers and leaving the co‐precipitating carbonates and chlorites with less available ferrous iron content. Alternatively, the occurrence of hematite in the alteration assemblage of the host BIF caused a structural limitation in the assignment of Fe3+ in chlorite which favored the incorporation of magnesium (rather than ferric iron) in chlorite under increasing fO2 conditions, and is consistent with deposits hosted in hematite‐bearing rocks. The combined effects of reduction in sulfur contents due to sulfide precipitation and increasing fO2 during progressive fluid‐rock interactions are likely to be the principal factors to have caused gold deposition. Arsenopyrite–pyrite geothermometry indicated a temperature range of 300–350°C for the associated gold mineralization. The estimated δ34SΣS (= +1.8 to +2.5‰) and low base metal contents of the sulfide ore mineralogy are consistent with sulfides that have been sourced from magma or derived by the dissolution of magmatic sulfides from volcanic rocks during fluid migration. 相似文献
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